Tropical Storm Jose strengthened back into a hurricane Friday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm, which could bring rain and wind to the northeastern United States later this week, had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and was 640 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, according to the hurricane center.
Jose remains out in the Atlantic Ocean and is moving toward the northwest, and that motion will bring it closer to the United States through the weekend. Just how far it moves west before turning to the north will tell forecasters a great deal about the likelihood of whether it will make landfall somewhere along the eastern US coastline.
The National Hurricane Center has included parts of the United States, from New Jersey up to New England, in its “cone of uncertainty,” which shows the probable track of the center of a storm over a five-day period. The cone includes the New Jersey coastline, Long Island, most of Connecticut and Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island.
A majority of the models keep the center of the storm over the ocean, including the major global models the GFS — the American forecast model — and the ECMWF — the European one.
Still, the proximity to land will likely bring strong gusting winds and rain to the Northeast, including New York City, by the middle of next week. In addition, tropical-storm-force winds could extend to North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Monday, the National Hurricane Center said.
The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks, according to the hurricane center. But changes could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks.
“While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, (it) could cause some direct impacts to these areas,” hurricane center forecaster Robbie Berg said in a statement Saturday evening. “Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.”
The official forecast track from the hurricane center puts Jose as a strong tropical storm Wednesday 225 miles southeast of New York. Coincidentally, the average track error for the forecast at five days is 225 miles. The forecast gives about a 1-in-4 chance of seeing tropical-storm-force winds –…